Two Coasts · Costa Rica · For the Investor & the Operator

The Expensive Paradise Problem

Two Coasts Series · Issue · September 2026 · 11-minute read

Costa Rica opened 2026 with the best first quarter in its history — 1.03 million visitors, +11.3%, above pre-pandemic levels for the first time. In June, arrivals dipped. The reason is not demand — it is arithmetic: the colón has strengthened 15–20% against the dollar since 2022, and the eco-paradise Americans fell in love with now prices like the Caribbean without the Caribbean’s rate ladder. The market’s answer is a deliberate pivot from volume to value.

Costa RicaFor the investorFor the operatorSeries

The Verdict. Costa Rica’s demand story is real — records in Q1, +7.8% for the half, Guanacaste growing twice as fast as San José. But the margin story now belongs to the exchange rate: operators earn in dollars and pay in colones, and June’s dip is the first warning. Underwrite the Papagayo/Papagayo-adjacent luxury stack where rate power offsets FX; treat the mid-market as a margin trade, not a growth trade.

01 — The record and the dip

The first half of 2026 gave Costa Rica 1.6 million air arrivals, +7.8% year on year, with Canadians up 32% on new direct capacity. Then June printed −1.2% — small, but the first reversal since the recovery began, and it arrived exactly as the colón’s appreciation began to bite into trip budgets.

Strip the noise and the shape is clear: 2025 closed with 2.94 million visitors (2.69 million by air), average spend of $1,848 per air visitor over a 10.3-night stay — a shorter, richer trip than the pre-pandemic norm. The ICT projects 2.7–2.9 million for 2026, explicitly conditional on the currency and new air routes holding.

The FX vise. Tourism earns in dollars and spends in colones. A 15–20% appreciation since 2022 compresses operator margins by double digits; raising dollar rates works only while demand holds. June suggests travellers have started comparing Costa Rica’s total trip cost against cheaper Caribbean and Mexican alternatives.

02 — Two gateways, two economies

Costa Rica runs a two-engine system. Juan Santamaría (SJO) handled 66% of air arrivals in 2025 — city stays, business, multi-region circuits; its RevPAR is still below 2019. Guanacaste (LIR) took 904,762 — resort, beach, luxury, North American leisure — and is growing at 13.3% in 2026, twice the capital’s pace. The incremental tourist is a Guanacaste tourist.

1.03M Q1 2026 visitors — first quarter above 2019 levels ever
$1,848 average spend per air visitor, 2025 · 10.3 nights
+13.3% Guanacaste airport arrivals growth, H1 2026
+15–20% colón appreciation vs USD since 2022 — the margin squeeze

Costa Rica tiers, season 2026–27

Península PapagayoFour Seasons, Andaz, Nekajui — rate power absorbs FX
Guanacaste branded coastWaldorf Astoria open, JW Marriott Costa Elena Sep 2026 — demand-led
Eco-lodge spineNayara, Arenal, Osa — strong rates, thin margins in colones
San José cityRevPAR still below 2019 — business base recovering slowly

03 — The premium pipeline

Supply is responding exactly where the yield is: 26 hotel projects worth $736.7 million and 1,453 rooms for 2025–26, weighted to upper-upscale and luxury. Waldorf Astoria Punta Cacique has opened; JW Marriott Costa Elena (all-inclusive) follows in September 2026; Four Seasons adds Papagayo Suites from December 2026; St. Regis is signed for Papagayo. This is a branded bet on fewer, richer guests.

The strategy in one line. ICT’s pivot is explicit: grow spend per visitor, not visitor count — eco-luxury, wellness, branded residences, MICE (fastest-growing segment at 13%+ CAGR). Airports and parks are the capacity ceiling; yield is the release valve.
Bull case

· North American source market is short-haul, high-income and expanding — Canada +32%
· Papagayo’s integrated ecosystem (resort + residences + golf + wellness) monetises the whole trip
· $736.7M branded pipeline is demand-led, not speculative
· Law 10008 digital-nomad visas fill shoulder seasons

Bear case

· The colón turns Costa Rica into a premium-priced product with a mid-tier cost base
· SJO and LIR are near peak-hour capacity — the ceiling is physical
· ADR fell from 2023 records while the Caribbean kept setting them
· Mid-market alienation risk as the brand moves upmarket

Sources: Costa Rican Tourism Institute (ICT) arrival statistics; SINAC protected-area visitation data; STR/CoStar hotel performance reporting; Mordor Intelligence market analysis; developer and operator announcements. Figures are publicly reported, directional where noted. Verified as of 25 September 2026.

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