01 — A market priced like a trophy
The 2025 scoreboard: ~4M visitors, occupancy ~75%, ADR above $500 annual average — the highest in Mexico by a wide margin — and luxury-tier rates that now start where Cancún’s peak. The driver is mix, not volume: Cabo deliberately courted the top of the US market — private aviation into SJD set records again, and the destination’s share of $1,000+/night inventory is the largest in Latin America. Golf, sportfishing and whale season give it three demand engines beyond the beach.
02 — The corridor, decoded
San José del Cabo is the connoisseur’s base: a colonial art district, the Thursday Art Walk, and calmer resorts — Zadún (Ritz-Carlton Reserve), Las Ventanas al Paraíso, One&Only Palmilla on its swimmable cove. The Corridor holds the trophy shelf: Chileno Bay, Esperanza (Auberge), Montage, and the Four Seasons/Waldorf Astoria pair at Cabo del Sol. Cabo San Lucas is the marina, Medano Beach energy and the Arch — plus the new luxury tier at Pedregal. East Cape is the wild extension: Costa Palmas and the Four Seasons resort there for travellers who want Baja without the scene.
03 — The calendar
Peak is December–April: 25°C days, whale watching, and festive-week rates that are the Americas’ highest outside Hawaii. May–June is the connoisseur’s window — warm water, thinner crowds, 25–35% off peak. Late summer is hot and humid; September–October carries real hurricane risk (Odile in 2014 remains the reference), but October’s Bisbee’s fishing tournament marks the restart — and the year’s best luxury rates.
04 — What it costs, honestly
Entry luxury runs $600–900 in season (Montage, Chileno Bay tier); the reserves — Las Ventanas, Zadún, One&Only Palmilla — start at $1,200–1,800 and double at festive. Pedregal villas and East Cape estates run $2,000–10,000/night for groups. Food and activities price at US levels; the value move is May–June or the October restart, when the same resorts drop a third.
05 — The honest frictions
US dependence: over 80% of arrivals are American — a US slowdown hits Cabo first in Mexico. Water: the desert grows hotel keys faster than aquifers; desalination is expanding but the question compounds. Beaches: much of the coastline is unswimmable — the swimmable coves (Palmilla, Chileno, Medano) carry a premium for a reason. And the hurricane window is real: September trips need flexible rates.
06 — Final outlook
Los Cabos spent a decade converting from fishing town to the Americas’ rate leader, and 2025 confirmed the position: the luxury pipeline (Amanvari, Park Hyatt, St. Regis) will raise the ceiling again by 2028. Book May–June or November for value; book festive a year out; and treat the September window as a calculated gamble, not a deal.
Sources: Los Cabos Tourism Board (Fiturca) 2025 results; STR/CoStar market data; SJD airport traffic reports; developer announcements (Aman, Hyatt, Marriott); Mexico hospitality press. Estimates flagged where official series are incomplete. Verified as of August 2026.