01 — Two waves, two markets
Laguna Phuket's resort estates (Banyan Tree, Angsana, Cassia) built the category from the 1990s: managed villas and condos on leasehold-plus structures around the lagoon. They proved foreigners would buy resort product at scale — roughly 6,000 units changed hands across the estate over three decades.
The second wave, launched 2024–26, is different in kind: global flags (Anantara, InterContinental, Marriott's Luxury Collection, Meliá, several unannounced) selling freehold-quota condos and branded villas at USD 4,000–12,000 per sqm — price points that existed only in Bangkok before.
02 — The price ladder
Entry branded product (Laguna-adjacent condos) starts near USD 4,000 per sqm; west-coast Kamala/Surin/Layan branded villas run USD 8,000–12,000. Unbranded luxury condos of comparable build quality trade 30–40% lower — the premium buys rental programme access, operator standards and resale liquidity.
Second-wave demand by buyer origin:
03 — What the premium actually buys
Managed rental programmes on Phuket branded estates report 5–7% net yields to owners after splits — lower than Bali's raw villa economics, but with hotel-grade occupancy management and, crucially, a resale market where the operator's name does the marketing.
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· Second wave launches cluster in 2026–28 — absorption test ahead
· Brand premium compresses if rental yields disappoint
· Leasehold villa segment exposed to structure reviews
· Thai politics periodically revisits foreign-ownership rules
04 — Where it goes
Phuket's trajectory is toward the Miami model: a permanent branded-residence market where new flags compete on operator quality rather than on the novelty of the concept. The 2026–28 delivery wave will decide whether the 30–40% premium survives volume.
Sources: Bali and Phuket land/property registries as reported; Hainan FTP policy documents; Knight Frank and Savills branded-residence research; developer disclosures and brokerage reporting. Figures are publicly reported, directional where noted. Verified as of August 2026.