The Caribbean's most resilient brand: a Category 5 hurricane in October 2025, 70% of rooms back by autumn 2026 — and a 11,255-room wave still to come.
Shares are 2024 stopover mix (JTB); the UK/Europe and emerging splits are desk estimates on official totals — flagged. Post-storm trend (JTB, YTD 2026): USA −8.0%, Canada −3.9%, Europe −3.0%. Watch the new frontiers: Wingo opened Medellín–Montego Bay in June 2026.
Sources: Jamaica Tourist Board · Ministry of Tourism · JAPEX 2026 briefings. Verified October 2026.
Three perimeters, three truths: the register (~30K rooms), the operational share (70% and climbing — a moving number by design), and the pipeline (11,255 rooms by end-2027, 15–20K more by the early 2030s, $5B). A public by-grade room split is not officially published — owed from JHTA/STR, and we mark the gap rather than guess. Kingston's honest city shelf for reference: $184–263 for deluxe rooms at the business hotels.
the flagship corridor — grand all-inclusives, golf and the post-Melissa relaunches · from $250
Seven Mile Beach, cliffs and sunsets — the island's laid-back luxury · from $220
waterfalls, villas and the quiet east the next pipeline is betting on · from $180
The signals the desk is watching — the notes behind the Jamaica Market Brief.
Melissa hit the western parishes on Oct 28, 2025 — $8–15B in damage (UN), ~30% of tourism assets impacted. A year later: ~70% of rooms operational, demand outpacing supply.
2.3M visitors and $2.5B in Jan–Aug 2026 against reduced inventory — stopovers still −17–20% y/y, but rates in the operating stock are inflated by scarcity.
1,900+ rooms return in December 2026 — Sandals Montego Bay, Sandals Caribbean Cay, JOIA Rose Hall, two MGM Muthu conversions — then 3,465 more in Q1 2027.
The US advisory dropped to Level 2 in January 2026 — crime and health caveats remain, with Level 4 zones in specific neighborhoods of 11 parishes. We publish it as written.
Sandals Montego Bay's December return, JOIA Rose Hall, the MGM Muthu conversions, Zoetry's boutique debut — plus the TIO essay on the island that rebuilds in public.
Track the pipeline →Where the market actually stands — the Melissa ledger, the 71% American demand base, the reopening calendar, and honest dollar pricing. Verified against October 2026 data.
Read the brief →Three stock perimeters, the 11,255-room return wave, the $5B decade pipeline — and the constraint set every underwriter must price, hurricanes included.
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