BAKU WHO’S COMING
Azerbaijan received 2.57 million foreign visitors in 2025 (−2.1%) — Russia 23.9%, Türkiye 17.7%, Iran 8.1%, India 6.5% — and the 2026 plan targets 3.8 million by 2030 while the first half ran 10.3% under 2025.
The State Statistical Committee counted 2,570,200 foreign and stateless visitors in 2025 — 2.1% fewer than 2024, the first decline of the post-pandemic cycle. The source map is neighbourhood-dominated: Russia 23.9%, Türkiye 17.7%, Iran 8.1%, India 6.5%, Georgia 4.3%, Saudi Arabia 4.1%, Kazakhstan 4.0%, Pakistan 3.5%, Israel 2.7%, China 2.5%; the EU added 7% to 120,100 and the CIS 8.2% to 865,700. Three in four arrive by air (75.8%), 22.9% by rail and road — citizens and visa-free travellers only — and 1.3% by sea. Two-thirds of visitors are men, a business-travel signature.
The first half of 2026 printed the problem: 1.09 million arrivals, −10.3% year on year, with the Gulf down 31.4% and hotel nights off 8.3%. Baku’s answer arrived by decree: the State Programme for Tourism Development 2026–2030 targets 3.8 million foreign visitors and ₼12.2 billion of tourism value added by 2030 (from ₼6.96 billion in 2025), with subsidized hotel loans, charter-flight support and event incentives — and a modest 2026 waypoint of 2.42 million that the second half must now carry.
THE TIO READ
Read Baku’s arrivals as a policy market: volumes follow visas, flights and subsidies more than taste. The India and China lines are the structural growth; the Gulf dip is price sensitivity to a strong manat. Watch H2 2026 — the 2.42-million waypoint will tell you how hard the state is willing to pull the levers.
Subscribe to the digest and receive key market signals every two weeks.