01 — The two ledgers, headline read
The full two-ledger treatment — destinations, corridors, the 2026 pulse and the evidence ladder — lives in the outbound dossier. This file carries the headline rows of each ledger on their stated perimeters, plus the complete TIO coverage of the country.
| Ledger | Measure | Value | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inbound | International tourists | 130M | CTA, 2024 — ≈85% of the 2019 level |
| Arrivals gap to 2019 | ≈4.9M short | Same series | |
| Policy | visa-free corridors | Unilateral waivers; 147 cities open to foreign visitors | |
| Outbound | Trips 2026, forecast | 179.3M | CTD base case |
| Spend 2026, forecast | $257.6bn | CTD; ≈$1,437 per trip | |
| H1 2026 exits | 88.02M | National Immigration Administration | |
| WTTC travel & tourism | ≈$280bn 2026 | Separate perimeter, labelled |
02 — TIO coverage of China
Everything the office publishes on the country, one click away:
Sources. Headline figures are carried from the TIO outbound dossier of this market, where each sits on its stated perimeter with its full evidence ladder: CTD · CTA · NIA · SAFE · WTTC (China) / Bureau of Immigration · RBI · UN Tourism · JNTO (India) / CBR balance of payments · Border Service · ATOR (Russia). Cells marked * are our derivations, labelled in place. Read the dossier for the complete sourcing.