01 — Inbound: who is still coming
The shock ledger first, because it is the only block with weekly data. GHR/HCommunity's France-wide sample — trade data, scope not stated — shows new hotel bookings down 47% year-on-year on 18 October, the day after the first national march, and 27% cancellations for stays of 19–25 October. MKG's Paris file shows the city's booking lead over 2025 compressing from +8.6 points to +1.9. Protourisme prices each riot day at roughly 2% of a month's nights for the Paris trade.
| City | Pre-shock base | October event | Observed impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris | Aug: OCC 87.8%, ADR €355 (CoStar) | 410K marchers nationally, 24 Oct; Art Basel Paris public days cancelled 24–25 Oct | France-wide bookings −47% YoY on 18 Oct; Paris lead over 2025 +8.6 → +1.9 pts |
| Milan | Sep: OCC 84.2%, ADR €310 (+7.2%), RevPAR €261 (+8.9%) — CoStar | 18 Oct weekend damage est. €4.6M (trade associations) | Reuters saw no renewed looting on 24 Oct — stabilising |
| Barcelona | Sep: OCC 95%, average price €281 (eBooking.com) | 24 Oct: 23 shops vandalised, 128 arrested incl. 72 minors | Municipal street damage €36K, private retail losses excluded; hotel KPI impact unknown |
Three discipline notes. First, the −47% is France-wide, from an unstated GHR sample — not a Paris occupancy figure. Second, UMIH's widely quoted "30–40% cancellations" could not be opened at source; we leave it out of the ledger. Third, no systemic protest-related flight cut is verified: CDG and Orly cancellations were isolated, and the easyJet winter changes are a revision against the airline's own September plan on fuel prices — not a year-on-year reaction to the streets. The next Paris march is 31 October; a 21% cancellation-risk estimate for the coming weeks circulates among Île-de-France hoteliers* — direction, not audit.
02 — Outbound: where Europeans are going
The four demand engines, each on its own official ledger — different periods, different metrics, no direct comparison between the percentage changes:
| Origin | Ledger | 2026 signal | Where it tilts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | DRV/TDA operator sales, 15 Oct | Summer revenue +4%, travellers +2%; long-haul −14% | Türkiye +9%, Greece +10%, Spanish mainland +11% (revenue) |
| France | EDV/Orchestra booking files, 29 Sep — Toussaint departures 17 Oct–2 Nov | Long-haul files −19% | UK +44.5%, Italy +19%; Mauritius −19.4% |
| Italy | ASTOI autumn–winter 2026/27 sales, 14 Oct | Organised revenue −4.1% | South America +14.5%, Europe +5.5%; Middle East −73% |
| Spain | INE resident trips, Q2 2026 | 5.30M trips abroad (+2.0%), 32.56M nights (+6.1%) | — |
Germany deserves the scale reference it rarely gets in riot coverage: 105 million international overnight trips in 2025 (−8.3%), but €118.515 billion spent abroad (+2.7%) on the Bundesbank's revised 13 October table — fewer trips, more money per trip. Italy, Spain and Austria take the largest cheques (€13.3bn, €13.0bn, €12.3bn); Switzerland's German spend jumped +27%. The full dossier — corridors, gateways, daily budgets and the evidence ladder — is our first Germany Outbound issue, live alongside this one.
03 — Where the money moves
The editorial line of this block: the shifts below mostly pre-date the riots of 17–24 October. Geopolitics, pricing, air connectivity and perceived safety are all drivers — we do not assign causal credit to street unrest without post-event booking evidence.
Two honesty cells. Switzerland saw vandalism in Lausanne (10 Oct) and clashes in Bern (17 Oct) — and no independently verified nationwide tourism shock; the −20% US bookings is an autumn outlook, not a riot effect. Spain logged +2.0% outbound in Q2 — pre-October data; the 24–25 October events in Barcelona produced retail damage, and calls in Girona and Granollers fizzled, but no post-event switch is quantified. When a displacement claim cannot be evidenced, this block says so — that is what it is for.
04 — The TIO Read
Three conclusions to defend in November. First, the shock is a pace story, not a season story: −47% is a single-day booking print against a record base; what matters is whether the 31 October march repeats it. Second, watch the calendar, not the headlines: Art Basel's cancelled public days and Italy's Saturday call cycle are the leading indicators; hotel KPIs for late October will land in the November issue. Third, the outbound map is the tell: German money is tilting east and shortening haul on its own logic — destinations courting the German guest in 2027 should price for €118.5 billion of spend, not for the riot narrative. Issue 05 covers the Gulf; Issue 06 lands with November booking data.
Sources. GHR/HCommunity France-wide booking sample, 22 Oct 2026 · MKG Consulting Paris pace file · Protourisme · France Hospitalité via Euronews · CoStar — Paris Aug, Milan Sep 2026 · eBooking.com — Barcelona Sep 2026 · Reuters — France 25 Oct, Italy 24 Oct 2026 · EFE / Mossos d'Esquadra, Cadena SER — Barcelona 24–26 Oct 2026 · French Interior Ministry — 24 Oct marcher count · Art Basel Paris visitor notice · OAG — easyJet schedules 8 Sep vs 19 Oct 2026 (revision vs own plan, not YoY) · US State Dept advisory (France, Level 2, from 5 Nov) · Korean Air / Asiana refund policies via Kyunghyang Shinmun · DRV/TDA summer review, 15 Oct 2026 · EDV/Orchestra booking files, 29 Sep 2026 · ASTOI, 14 Oct 2026 · INE Spain Q2 2026 · Bundesbank revised travel-debit table, 13 Oct 2026 · Destatis 2025 travel demand, 17 Aug 2026 · Keystone-SDA — Bern 17 Oct · Swiss Travel Association SRV, Sep 2026 · 3Cat — Barcelona 25 Oct. Cells marked * are TIO estimates or unverified trade claims shown as direction only. UMIH's "30–40% cancellations" figure could not be verified at source and is excluded from the ledger.