01 — The ledger: three counts, one money line
Three instruments measure Russian departures; they disagree by design, and this dossier keeps them on separate rungs.
| Measure | Value | Perimeter |
|---|---|---|
| All trips abroad 2025 | 31.5M +8% | Border Service of the FSB — every crossing, every purpose, incl. near-abroad personal travel |
| Tourist-purpose trips 2025 | 13.4M +15.6% | Same source, purpose "tourism" only; 2019: 18.0M → −12.8% vs pre-pandemic |
| H1 2026 tourist trips | 9.5M +8.6% | ATOR analytical service: top-30 leisure destinations, transit-adjusted (≈1M transit visits added back) |
| Travel debit (BoP "Trips" import) | $49.7bn 2025 +31% | Bank of Russia — all resident spending abroad incl. business, education, VFR; 2014 record $50.4bn; 2019 $36.2bn |
| Travel credit (inbound mirror) | $8.9bn +17% | Same line, other direction: deficit on travel ≈$40.8bn* — the widest in the series |
| Implied spend per tourist trip | ≈$3,700* | Derived ceiling: $49.7bn ÷ 13.4M — blends all purposes into one ratio; read as an upper bound |
Why the money line outruns the trip count by so much: the BoP line counts everything residents spend abroad — including the business, education and long-stay travel that the tourism-purpose filter excludes — while the trip count is capped by airlift and visas. Both statements from the Bank of Russia are on record for 2025: the number of trips rose and average spending per trip rose. The strong ruble (+11% vs USD over 2025) did the rest: foreign holidays cheapened in ruble terms just as domestic resorts repriced upward (+9% hotels, +11% sanatoria, Rosstat) — the arbitrage the trade calls "дальше, но дешевле" (further, but cheaper).
02 — The receiving side: who counts the Russians
With origin-side destination data incomplete, the ledger is read where the traveller lands. 2025 full-year, national statistics vs Border Service where both exist:
| Destination | 2025 count | YoY | Instrument |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 6.9M visits (4.61M tourist trips) | +2.9% | Turkish Ministry of Culture & Tourism vs Border Service — the widest gap in the table: transit and repeat visitation |
| Egypt | 1.63M | +36% | Border Service; 2019 baseline a near-zero 14k — a rebuilt market |
| UAE | 1.72M | +17% | Border Service; the premium Gulf corridor — until H1 2026 |
| China | 1.36M | +33.6% | Border Service; visa-free for Russians from Sept 2025, record Q4 land + air entries |
| Thailand | 885.8k | −5.3% | Border Service; the only top-five market in decline — pricing and capacity, not demand |
| Vietnam | 281.2k | +834% | Receiving-side count: new charters + visa ease; from a low base, but now top-10 |
| Japan | 195k visits | record | JNTO — no direct flights; the Border Service table doesn't see it at all |
| Maldives | 112.3k | +9.1% | Receiving-side; Russia a top-three market again |
03 — The 2026 rerouting: one corridor closes, three absorb
H1 2026 is the cleanest live measurement of corridor politics in the series (ATOR, receiving-side adjusted):
| Corridor | H1 2026 | YoY | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 2.65M | +1.4% | The incumbent holds — capacity-capped, not demand-capped |
| China | 1.62M | +55.6% | The waiver compounded: now the No.2 corridor outright |
| Egypt | 1.17M | +24.3% | Absorbing the Gulf's lost beach demand |
| Vietnam | 742.7k | +185.8% | The breakout: from ninth to fifth in one season |
| UAE | 619k | −48.9% | The premium corridor halved by the West Asia conflict |
| Qatar / Kuwait / Bahrain | 33k / 4.7k / 7.8k | −39% / −55% / −22% | The whole Gulf tier contracted together |
| Thailand | 1.01M | −2.8% | Stable — the mature Asian beach holds its base |
| Maldives | 150.2k | +18.5% | The luxury outlier: grows while the Gulf burns |
Net-net the market still grew +8.6% — the lost Gulf volume (≈525k in the UAE alone) was more than replaced by China, Vietnam and Egypt (+1.3M combined). This is the India dossier's April shock read from the other side of the corridor: the same West Asia closure that cut Indian departures 22.5% rerouted Russian ones. Demand is structural; the corridor is the variable.
04 — The long-haul read
The series' question, Russian edition: the long-haul cheque exists, is fat, and flies east and south — west is administratively closed.
| Long-haul shelf | 2025/H1-26 signal | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Indian Ocean | Maldives 150k H1 2026 +18.5%; Seychelles +24.4%; Mauritius +3.7% | The most resilient luxury ledger — grows through every crisis print |
| Southeast Asia | Vietnam +185.8%; Indonesia flat −0.7%; Thailand −2.8% | Charter-driven: where lift is added, volume follows within one season |
| Northeast Asia | Japan 195k (record, no direct flights); South Korea 115k +4.5% | Connection-borne premium demand the border count cannot see |
| Latin America | Cuba −72.2%; Venezuela −55.3% | The one long-haul shelf in retreat — lift withdrawn, volume gone |
| Europe | Serbia 100k +19% is the de-facto EU gateway; direct Schengen leisure marginal | Administratively closed: visas scarce, airspace shut, demand routed via Belgrade/Istanbul/Yerevan |
The spend evidence sits on the receiving side too: tour prices rose ≈15% in 2025 while travellers upgraded hotel categories ("better hotels, richer content", per operators), and May-holiday baskets to Vietnam hit ₽191k — the most expensive of the Asian trio — with 5★ taking a quarter of Thailand bookings. The $3,700* implied cheque is a blend, but the direction is consistent across every source: the Russian traveller who still travels, spends.
05 — What it tells a resort
Five operating rules from the receiving-side ledger:
- Corridors first, marketing second. Every breakout in this dossier — China, Vietnam, Egypt — is a lift story or a visa story, never an advertising story. The commercial question for 2027 is "who flies," not "who dreams."
- Price the corridor risk you carry. The UAE row (−48.9% in one half-year) is what a geopolitically single-corridor exposure costs. If Russia is a top-three market, hold a second access path — direct and one-stop — before you need it.
- The premium niche is real and growing. Maldives +18.5% while the Gulf halved: the top of the Russian book is the most crisis-resilient leisure demand in the series. Protect rate; this client upgrades through turbulence.
- Accept ruble-cycle sensitivity. 2025's surge was co-signed by a +11% ruble; a reversal cheapens nothing abroad. Scenario-plan both FX directions — the ledger swings with the currency more than any European market in the series.
- Read Russia on your own border, not on Russia's. The origin data will stay fragmentary; the receiving-side count you already publish is the better instrument. That is this dossier's method — and it doubles as advice.
06 — The evidence ladder
What stands on what — this dossier's ladder is explicitly two-sided:
| Figure | Source | Rung |
|---|---|---|
| $49.7bn travel debit; $8.9bn credit; Dec $5.67bn peak | Bank of Russia, BoP "Trips" line, preliminary 2025 (Feb 2026) | Official central-bank series since 2001 |
| 31.5M all trips; 13.4M tourist trips +15.6%; 2019 base 18.0M | Border Service of the FSB, via RST/RBC | Official border tally — purpose-filtered |
| H1 2026: 9.5M +8.6%; per-destination table | ATOR analytical service (Aug 2026), transit-adjusted | Industry estimate on official + receiving-side data — labelled |
| Turkey 6.9M vs 4.61M; Japan 195k record | Turkish MCT; JNTO | Receiving-country national statistics |
| Tour prices +15%; hotel +9% / sanatoria +11% domestic repricing | Operators via ATOR; Rosstat | Trade survey + official price series |
| Ruble +11% vs USD 2025; BoP services-deficit commentary | Bank of Russia | Official FX + BoP narrative |
| ≈$3,700/trip*; travel deficit ≈$40.8bn* | Derived: CBR line ÷ Border Service count; debit − credit | Marked derivations — ceiling blends, not measurements |
| China visa-free Sept 2025; e-arrival card Nov 2025 | NIA / Chinese MFA announcements | Policy record — the corridor events |
Sources. Bank of Russia — preliminary BoP estimate 2025 (12 Feb 2026) and monthly BoP commentaries · Border Service of the FSB — 2025 exit statistics, via the Russian Union of Travel Industry (9 Feb 2026) and RBC (8 Feb 2026) · ATOR analytical service — H1 2026 receiving-side review (5 Aug 2026) and summer-2025 outlook (30 May 2025) · Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Türkiye — 2025 arrivals · JNTO — 2025 visitor statistics · Rosstat — domestic price series, via operator commentary · NIA PRC — visa-waiver and e-arrival-card notices (Sep/Nov 2025) · Interfax, The Moscow Times (RU), Izvestia, Hürriyet — reporting on the official series. Cells marked * are derivations, labelled in place; where origin and destination counts disagree, both are shown and the gap is read as transit. Series complete: Germany → France → Italy → Spain → United Kingdom → the comparison → China → India → Russia.