01 — The long-haul read
The scoreboard that matters most for an Indian Ocean, Southeast Asian or Caribbean resort. Every row on its own published perimeter.
| Market | Long-haul signal, 2026 | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | ABTA "longest haul" trend; LHR corridors JFK 3.24M · DXB 2.86M · DOH 2.01M; £111/day in North America | Accelerating |
| Spain | ACAVE: long-haul the most demanded segment; Asia frontier — Japan, China, Indonesia, Thailand; Barajas LatAm franchise | Accelerating |
| Germany | DRV long-haul revenue −14%; US spend −19.3% in 2025 (Bundesbank); Maldives/Thailand/DR stable in winter 26/27 (DERTOUR) | Retrenching |
| France | Long-haul summer revenue −15%; Toussaint long-haul files −19%, Mauritius −19.4%; May US reservations −40% | Retrenching |
| Italy | Extra-EU debit +1.3% in 2025, −2.1% spring 2026; Malpensa long-haul build-out; ITA Mauritius link from Nov 2025 | Thin, building |
Two readings coexist and both are true: the retrenching pair is where long-haul luxury yield is under pressure — promote, package, protect rate; the accelerating pair is where 2027 inventory should be sold now, while German and French buyers hesitate. Note the Gulf's double role: for Britain it is the outbound pipe (DXB and DOH are top-three Heathrow corridors), for Germany it is the winter value alternative.
02 — The five ledgers, side by side
Levels are indicative — the perimeters differ and are stated; directions are robust.
| Market | Volume (2025) | Spend abroad (2025) | Perimeter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 105.0M trips −8.3% | €118.5bn +2.7% | Destatis trips; Bundesbank revised debit |
| United Kingdom | 99.9M visits +5.6% | £86.2bn | ONS IPS; visits and spend estimates |
| France | 38.0M visits | €57.4bn +4% | UN Tourism visits; Banque de France debit |
| Italy | ≈38.4M travellers | ≈€34.1bn +3.1% | Banca d'Italia border survey; BoP debit |
| Spain | 175.7M trips −4.7% | €23.6bn survey / ≈€34bn* BoP-implied | INE includes domestic trips; Banco de España payments derived* |
03 — The gateways, side by side
2025 throughput, all nationalities — an aviation measure that tells you where the seats are, not who is in them.
| Hub | 2025 pax | Read |
|---|---|---|
| London Heathrow | 84.5M +0.7% | All-time record at 98% slot capacity; growth leaks to Manchester (+4%) and Gulf feeds |
| Paris CDG | 72.0M +2.5% | Still 5.4% below 2019; H1 2026 flat (−0.2%) — the plateaued long-haul hub |
| Madrid Barajas | 68.2M +3.0% | International +5.5%; the Latin America franchise |
| Frankfurt | 63.2M | Germany's long-haul anchor; summer boardings grew while bookings fell — network vs demand |
| Rome Fiumicino | 51.3M +4% | First year above 50M; long-haul 10.8M (+6%); Milan Malpensa +8.6% is the premium riser |
04 — What the five tell a resort
Four operating rules from the cross-read:
- Buy long-haul demand where it is still growing. British (via Gulf hubs) and Spanish (toward Asia and Latin America) cheques are the only two expanding; 2027 long-haul inventory should be contracted against them first.
- Price German and French long-haul as swing demand. −14% and −15% long-haul revenue with fatter short-haul baskets means promotion-sensitive late bookers — hold rate, flex packaging, do not pre-sell cheap.
- Programme the shoulders. The British September shift (17%→24% intent) and France's August revenue +7.6% say the same thing: the European long-haul season is stretching at its edges.
- Track the east corridor quarterly. Türkiye +878k British visits, +12.3% German boardings to Egypt: value-seeking volume is moving inside each national book — measured displacement, not anecdote.
05 — The evidence ladder
Every figure above traces to a dossier rung; the dossiers trace to the publishers.
| Figure | Source | Dossier |
|---|---|---|
| 105.0M trips; €118.5bn; long-haul −14% | Destatis · Bundesbank · DRV | Germany |
| 38.0M visits; €57.4bn; long-haul −15%, US −40% | UN Tourism · Banque de France/DGE · EDV-Orchestra | France |
| ≈38.4M travellers; ≈€34.1bn; extra-EU −2.1% | Banca d'Italia · ASTOI · ENAC | Italy |
| 175.7M trips; €23.6bn; Asia frontier | INE ETR · Banco de España · ACAVE | Spain |
| 99.9M visits; £86.2bn; longest haul | ONS Travel Trends · ABTA · Heathrow/MAG | United Kingdom |
| Spain BoP-implied payments ≈€34bn* | Derived: receipts €104.5bn − surplus €70.5bn | Marked derivation |
Sources. This page adds no new measurement: every figure is carried from the five dossiers on its stated perimeter — Destatis and Bundesbank (Germany), UN Tourism, Banque de France/DGE and EDV-Orchestra (France), Banca d'Italia, ASTOI and ENAC (Italy), INE, Banco de España and ACAVE (Spain), ONS, ABTA, Heathrow and MAG (UK). The cell marked * is a derivation, labelled in place. Next in the series: China — back above the peak, on a redrawn map; India and Russia close the series.